October 09, Science and Technology
Tomorrow's World
What will new technology mean for the world in years to come? Chris Barnatt of Nottingham University Business School looks to the future
Chris Barnatt is a man with his eye on the future. Along with an expert knowledge of all things technological, he is what is termed a 'futurist'. But don't get the wrong idea from the name: there's nothing wacky about the subject, and, as Associate Professor of Computing and Future Studies at Nottingham University Business School, Chris is a leading mainstream academic.
"People imagine you to have a crystal ball and make predictions, but it's not so," he smiles. "Futurists try to work out possible futures that people can work towards. It's a bit like an architect drawing up different plans. I call it future gazing as future shaping. You work today towards shaping the future you would like tomorrow."
Chris' work focuses heavily on technological advances, their implications, and the choices humans make in responding to them. It's a huge subject, covering everything from climate change to nanotechnology (the science of manipulating matter at the near-atomic scale).
One of the most significant developments at the moment is cloud computing.
"It's quite probably the single biggest thing that's going to happen in technology in the next five years, and will have the same impact as personal computing had in the Nineties," says Chris.
"With cloud computing, no matter what hardware or software you are using, you can just subscribe to a service from any device, and often for free. Up until now, you have had to install software, but with cloud computing, you don't have to. Providing you have a browser, you can access whatever applications you want.
"One of the implications of the new technology is that companies may well be asking themselves whether they now need an on-site IT department."
He may move in the world of academia, but Chris Barnatt is people-friendly and keen to get key messages about his subject across to a lay public. Along with his university lecturing commitments, he is also an author and film-maker, makes frequent media appearances, tweets on Twitter and has two excellent websites, both supported by YouTube channels. www.ExplainingComputers.com, as the name suggests, is all about computers and includes short videos on a range of computing concepts, from cloud computing to Web Squared. www.ExplainingTheFuture.com is intended to help people broaden their thinking about the many possible worlds of tomorrow.
"I like to describe myself as an academic who keeps in touch with the world. It's about getting debates out there. How a message is delivered is important. Even if you have the best information in the world, if you cannot make it accessible, it doesn't get heard," he explains.
His five previous books on computing, business organisations and the future include the UK's first e-commerce book, Cyber Business, and Chris is due to begin writing another in the spring, to be called A Brief Guide to Cloud Computing. Earlier this year, one of his books, Challenging Reality, was made into a TV series of the same name, and broadcast on UK Sky, Channel 200. The programmes question the certainties of the modern world and examine the key challenges and opportunities of the future.
Chris spent several years in television as an animator working with the likes of Tony Hart before his academic career, and his animation skills have stood him in good stead because he has produced the technically impressive series of Challenging Reality programmes himself. Production of the final two programmes is currently underway and due for completion by Christmas.
"It takes six weeks to do a programme; it is a very intense process," he says. "The accepted idea ten years ago was that someone could not make a TV programme themselves. But now, the technological hurdles are falling. You can see it happening on television - journalists now both edit programmes and do the graphics themselves."
Technology is certainly one of the fastest-evolving subjects around, but while many welcome it, there is a view that it could be moving faster than the human race is ready for.
"People will often say they do not like technology - while they are sitting at a laptop and using a mobile phone," says Chris. "If technology does things people value, then they tend to embrace it. To some extent, humans have always used technology, from when they first used a stone as a tool to the Industrial Revolution. It's a part of what separates us from other species.
"But there are areas, such as life extension, genetic engineering and nanotechnology to augment the body's repair and immune systems and extend lifespan, where you step into ethical debate."
These subjects are all covered in ExplainingTheFuture, along with fascinating propositions such as biocomputers with synthetic DNA, something which might seem incredible now.
"We have to remember that cyberspace came out of science fiction. Once people have ideas, scientists try to work on them. It is scary, but a lot of things we do today were once seen as impossible," says Chris. "Think of Star Trek and the small devices they could talk on. We never thought it could happen, but now the mobile phone is standard stuff.
"In the twentieth century we went from the steam train to landing on the moon, and now we are at the start of a similar shift."
As for our own future, he says: "The big change is obviously the impact of the green agenda and the shortage of resources. I think the future could go one of two ways. We could see a very different world to today, where people all do less travelling and live more locally, rather like pre industrial revolution. Or, we could embrace technologies, such as nanotechnology, and we could be using the moon and asteroids to get more resources.
"Part of me would like to see the world get simpler. We have all these ways to communicate, and people communicate more instantaneously, but we often do not have the value of having a real person connecting to us by our side."
• To watch Chris Barnatt's video on cloud computing, click on the link at the top of this story